Showing posts with label demand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label demand. Show all posts

Tuesday, 26 February 2013

February Gothic Viewpoint

The far outcries of a weary Britain’s Triple – A downgrade, and the far reaching wails of a Banshee that stay echoing with a once dominant oil giant could be the marks of February 2013, which Economics nerds remember.


Apart from that the dear lust I have in returning to the desolate sector which I call short-term trading. Research and hunger for a weakened Sterling drives me into vast array that this is 2013 and yes people need to be proactive in objects other than chess, in order to survive the Darwinian rules of life.
Iran goes Keynesian
For me, yes I will remember it for these two things, plus Iran’s new adventurous plans for 20 new uranium rich reactors.
Iran’s strategy of its announcement on the new nuclear reactor plans, may pay off in the long term. The strong decisions that Iran will not back down, regardless of international pressure on its nuclear programme as a known Islamic radical state, could pave the wave for new balance of payments to enter the country. Looking at in terms of the size of Iran, one could easily assume that Iran will have a power production surplus in cheap electricity, which could be provided to an oil dependent power consuming gulf.
As much as its nuclear programme is seen as a major threat to Israel and other nations, it could bring forth a new frontier of gulf power. Iran could enrich nuclear weapons, but instead it is taking positive approach in order to combat economic sanction bestowed upon them.

Wireless momentum
At the moment there are two groups pushing forward for one next big thing in world electronic devices. The ability to charge battery powered devices wirelessly from the handheld mp3s and smartphones, to the 12V battery in your car. The ‘Wireless power consortium’ and ‘Power matters’ alliances are the two big groups pushing this forward and competing. A future billion € industry that will maybe see the combination is well with wireless signals in order to keep the spectrum of signals generic and together, as the invisible spectrum gets more and more stuck together.
Only Fools and horses – The Long view

Well apart from the horse meat scandal. Some other people have silver lined their pockets in an array of marvelous moves within the economy.
As the currency attacks become far greater on central banks, deemed by hedge & Pension fund managers as being the new innocent flesh to be cleaned from bones, a sudden eye takes a glimpse where does it go from here?
Well with dilution in the power of central banks, the multiplier effect of virtual power transfers over to the hedge funds at a smiling rate, as they know after the submission of Bank of England to the new round of QE, they will easily take bets on world recession part II.

The Gothic Viewpoint
The central bank may take an extreme monetarism approach to curb the economy as economic collapse may look inevitable, pressing the political side of the coin in to reduce tax receipts in the short-term, in order to reduce the downturn in a rise in central bank interest rates. The proposal seems more to create a wave of laughing amongst some readers. But think of Europe in particular, what options are left before part II is not prophecy anymore?
So the Banshee has not given up yet haunting the tickers at the world indices and another wave of gothic worthy financial depression I may get to rant about. But one thing is for certain, that humans do become innovative, and are able to find ways to adapt to constraints. Well that’s the nice way to put it… now to listen to Rome!
Tata
Gothic Economist

Wednesday, 26 September 2012

The Arctic, Russia and the West

The Arctic, the final frontier and one of the most unexplored regions for oil; it has stayed very unexplored for a reason. Shell this week announced their suspension of their drilling, this included France's Total. Combined spending of these two companies within the region is estimated at approximately $7-9Bn. This has occurred due to countless safety problems and the high guarantee of not being able to contain a spill if occurred. ENI and Exxon Mobil though still have their hands hooked into the exploration of the Russian Arctic, but progress has yet to be made, or is it really Russia's Arctic?

Countless disputes between Norway and Russia over the northern territory have continued, leading more secondary companies to conduct their northern drilling explorations from Greenland, yet progress is still yet to be made, one of the suffers of $1Bn yet to make a comeback is Cairn Energy. Russia may though, as well as BP be drawing a quick line under their exploration problems, if the long battle zone of TNK-BP joint venture can be settled.Therefore rebidding of Rosneft (Russia's state oil company) can start again, bringing BP back into the Strategic oil club, and more importantly growing in size since it's asset sale to cover it's remaining Gulf of Mexico disaster repayments.

If the deal with Rosneft is completed soon, BP could quickly become the largest licensed drilling holder within the Arctic. The company is known to be at the front of hard drilling conditions, but also for their failure to operate safely. If BP through the help of Rosneft throws $12Bn give or take, with their newest Arctic technology, they could become successful in domineering the one fifth of the worlds, untapped oil resources.
The company is now finalising the selling of two refineries in the US, leaving it desperate to grow more. Taking a more primary/tertiary model of growth, will be beneficial for the company, though refining oil is turning into a more profitable area of the oil sector. Many new companies are entering this market such as Marathon Petroleum and buying refineries of the likes of BP.

If success is seen in Russia, the strategic energy chart will be weighed more heavily towards the old bears, as the unrest within North Africa and the Middle East continues. Though the slowdown in economic growth has, allowed for the demand price of oil to drop to lows of $108.00 bbl, showing that as much as oil production risk may have increased, the demand has dropped. Though I think it is safe to assume that OPEC will drop supply if it decreases "too much".

Another attack from Europe is occurring. Just before this winter the EU began a probe into GazProm (Russia's state gas company) for it's price fixing to Europe, but more on that in the next entry.
Tata GE